Main factors for population drop revealed

THE chronic shortage of houses – coupled with rising property prices – are primary factors for Dumfries and Galloway’s declining population, according to new research. Dumfries and Galloway Council recently led a detailed study into the reasons why the region’s population has dropped from around 149,490 10 years ago to 145,860 in 2024, writes Marc McLean. The population is forecasted to decline further to around 143,000 by 2032.

In addition to the overall numbers dropping, there is a demographic shift with an ageing population. Funding was obtained from the Scottish Government to research and tackle depopulation across the region, and the findings will be presented at the full council meeting next week. The research underlined six interdependent factors that influence why people choose to remain living in a particular location: housing, employment, education, transport, health, and social interactions. And the report pinpointed the extremely challenging housing situation in Dumfries and Galloway. It states: “Decline in the private rental sector with 11.9 percent of landlords leaving the industry over the past five years, which has seen a decline of 9.7 percent of properties available in the market. A reduction of over 1000 properties available across the rental market. “Build costs in rural Dumfries and Galloway are among the highest in Scotland, estimated at over £300,000 for a two-bedroom home — substantially above the national average of £200,000. “Between 2012 and 2023, house prices in the region increased by 26 percent. The average house price rose from £140,859 in 2017/18 to £183,002 in 2022/23. “Nearly 3000 households remain on the social housing waiting lists, with 28 percent overcrowded and 23 percent under-occupied, largely due to misalignment between house size and household structure. “Over 3000 properties are removed from permanent residential stock due to second homes, short term lets and leisure accommodation.” It continued: “The availability, affordability, and quality of housing play a major role in population change. Communities with a good supply of suitable and affordable homes are more likely to attract and retain residents.” A lengthy series of recommendations are presented for consideration, including adopting a stronger focus on addressing depopulation, developing innovative recruitment strategies targeting young professionals and investing in housing and rural transport. Councillors will agree next steps and decide whether to submit an expression of interest for further funding, of up to £60,000 from the Scottish Government. It would be used to identify and prioritise a small number of high-impact intervention themes to tackle depopulation.